What’s Brewing with Coffee Prices? Here’s Why They’re Going Up
Written by Aaron Grimeau, Owner of Expedition Coffee Roasters
Wondering about all the talk of coffee prices? What is the hype? Why the big deal? Have you ever noticed that the price of your morning coffee hadn’t changed much over a five or six year period, but over the last six to eight months has started to climb? Read on to know more…
The Rising Cost of Green Coffee: What’s Driving Prices Up?
Over the last year, the price of green coffee has soared, creating concerns for businesses, roasters, and consumers alike. The global coffee market has long been subject to fluctuations driven by environmental factors, economic shifts, and supply chain dynamics. However, the most recent surge in pricing has left many wondering: what is happening to coffee?
Several key factors have contributed to the rise in green coffee prices, including changing climate patterns, supply chain disruptions, labour shortages, and increased global demand. The perfect storm of these elements has pushed coffee prices to record highs, making it one of the most volatile agricultural commodities in the last year.
Changing Climate Patterns and Their Impact on Coffee Production
One of the primary reasons behind rising coffee prices is changing climate patterns. Coffee cultivation is highly sensitive to environmental conditions, and recent extreme weather events have significantly impacted yields.
Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has faced some of the worst climate disruptions in recent history. Severe droughts followed by unexpected frosts have decimated crops, leaving farmers unable to recover from previous losses. The lack of rainfall has reduced the availability of water needed for coffee plants to thrive, while unexpected frosts have damaged delicate coffee cherries before harvest. This has led to lower production volumes, placing strain on the global supply.
In Vietnam, another major coffee-growing country, excessive rainfall and flooding have affected output. In some cases, prolonged wet conditions have led to coffee diseases, such as coffee leaf rust and berry borer infestations, which reduce yields and compromise the quality of the beans.
Colombia has also struggled with unseasonable rain patterns, leading to inconsistent harvests and logistical challenges in transporting beans. These weather-related setbacks contribute to overall supply shortages, forcing prices higher as demand remains steady.
Supply Chain Disruptions and Shipping Challenges
While changing climate patterns have directly affected production volumes, supply chain bottlenecks have made it even harder to get coffee from farms to consumers. Global supply chain disruptions, largely stemming from the (still) lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, have had a direct impact on transportation, storage, and distribution.
Shipping Delays and Rising Costs
Shipping disruptions have plagued nearly every industry, and coffee is no exception. Port congestion, container shortages, and rising fuel costs have complicated international trade routes. Many coffee shipments rely on maritime freight, but fewer available containers and higher transportation fees have slowed exports significantly.
Major exporting countries, such as Brazil and Vietnam, have struggled with logistical challenges due to delays in port processing. Backlogs in shipping schedules mean that coffee destined for international markets has taken much longer to arrive, leading to uncertainty in pricing and inventory availability.
Moreover, fuel price increases have made long-haul transportation more expensive, further driving up costs. Distributors and importers who rely on ground transportation are spending more to move green coffee beans, and these costs are inevitably passed down the supply chain.
Warehouse Shortages and Low Inventories
Storage and warehousing play a crucial role in maintaining steady coffee supply levels. However, low inventory levels across importing countries have compounded the crisis. Some importers and traders, wary of uncertain market conditions, have maintained slimmer stockpiles than in previous years. With inventory levels reduced, even minor disruptions in shipments cause large price fluctuations.
In the U.S. and Europe, large roasting companies typically rely on a consistent flow of beans from exporting nations. However, the slow replenishment of stocks has pushed prices higher as roasters compete for limited supplies.
Labour Shortages in Coffee Harvesting and Logistics
Another major issue affecting supply chain stability is labour shortages. Many coffee farms are facing a lack of available workers to harvest and process coffee cherries. The aging farmer population and declining interest among younger generations to pursue agricultural work have contributed to labour gaps in harvesting coffee.
Additionally, many farms rely on seasonal migrant labour, but restrictive travel policies and economic pressures have reduced the number of workers available to assist with peak harvesting seasons. As a result, coffee farms in Colombia, Brazil, and Vietnam have struggled to pick and process cherries quickly enough, leading to lower output.
On the logistics front, labour shortages in shipping, trucking, and warehousing have compounded delays. Many ports report limited staffing, causing processing times to increase and further delaying deliveries.
Market Dynamics and Coffee Price Trends
The recent surge in coffee prices is reflected in the C Market price, which serves as the global benchmark for green coffee trading. Over the last year, the C Market price has more than doubled, reaching historic highs.
In February 2025, coffee prices peaked at $4.39 per pound, surpassing previous records set decades ago. Arabica futures have fluctuated between $3.80 and $3.90 per pound, maintaining their upward trajectory. These price increases are especially concerning for specialty coffee roasters who rely on high-quality beans from regions that have suffered climate-related losses.
Higher prices have affected both producers and buyers. Farmers who successfully harvested coffee have benefited from higher selling prices, but those who faced climate disruptions or disease outbreaks have struggled to meet demand. On the consumer side, coffee businesses arefacing higher costs, forcing them to either absorb price increases or pass them on to customers.
Additionally, speculation in coffee markets has added fuel to the fire. Some investors have entered coffee futures trading, driving up prices as they bet on continued scarcity. Market speculation hashistorically played a role in coffee price volatility, and the most recent surge is partially influencedby financial positioning. Large-scale factory roasters like Nestlé (Nespresso), Lavazza, Starbucksare able to use their financial means to secure long term contracts, further squeezing out smaller roasters in the process.
Global Coffee Demand and Its Role in Pricing
Demand for coffee has been rising steadily, particularly in countries that traditionally consumed little of it. The expansion of specialty coffee markets and third-wave coffee movements have increased demand for high-quality Arabica beans.
China, for instance, has seen a significant increase in coffee consumption, with market analysts predicting a 15% growth in demand over the next few years. As more emerging markets develop coffee-drinking cultures, supply pressures continue to grow.
Major coffee-consuming regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan have maintained strong demand, creating greater competition for limited supplies. Large multinational coffee chains have also continued to expand globally, requiring stable sourcing of beans to meet their growing customer base.
Conclusion: The Future of Coffee Pricing
The sharp increase in green coffee prices over the past year reflects the fragility of the global coffee market. With changing climate patterns continuing to disrupt crops, labour shortages persisting, and supply chain challenges posing difficulties for distribution, coffee prices are likely to remain volatile.
As consumers, coffee roasters, and importers navigate these changes, efforts to improve sustainable sourcing, climate resilience, and logistical efficiency may help stabilize prices in the long term. In the meantime, the coffee industry will need to adapt to a new era where pricing trends are shaped by environmental, economic, and market dynamics.
About Us – Expedition Coffee Roasters – Falmouth, NS, Canada
As Expedition Coffee Roasters is a small-scale roaster, we are at the whim of the fluctuations mentioned above. We will always strive to source high-quality, ethically grown coffee from reputable suppliers—we only use Canadian-based suppliers with strong reputations for their sourcing and market dealings. As the first roastery in Canada to use Probat’s all-electric, zero-emissions roasters, no other roastery can touch our clean credentials. We are a Canadian-owned business proud to bring the highest quality beans, roasted to the highest standards, to people who love coffee and the flavour journey it can take us on.